Helena Valley West Central, MT 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for 5 Miles NNW Helena MT
National Weather Service Forecast for:
5 Miles NNW Helena MT
Issued by: National Weather Service Great Falls, MT |
Updated: 10:40 am MDT Jun 26, 2025 |
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This Afternoon
 Showers Likely
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Tonight
 Chance T-storms then Slight Chance Showers
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Friday
 Chance Showers
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Friday Night
 Partly Cloudy
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Saturday
 Sunny
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Saturday Night
 Mostly Clear
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Sunday
 Sunny
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Sunday Night
 Clear
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Monday
 Sunny
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Hi 79 °F |
Lo 53 °F |
Hi 78 °F |
Lo 50 °F |
Hi 77 °F |
Lo 49 °F |
Hi 81 °F |
Lo 51 °F |
Hi 87 °F |
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This Afternoon
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 4pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 4pm and 5pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 79. North wind 7 to 9 mph becoming south southwest. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. |
Tonight
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 4am, then a slight chance of showers between 4am and 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 53. West wind 5 to 9 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Friday
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A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Light west wind becoming west southwest 9 to 14 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Friday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. West wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. |
Saturday
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Sunny, with a high near 77. Light west southwest wind becoming west 9 to 14 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. |
Saturday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 49. West northwest wind 9 to 14 mph becoming light west southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. |
Sunday
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Sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming west northwest 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. |
Sunday Night
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Clear, with a low around 51. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. |
Monday
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Sunny, with a high near 87. |
Monday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 56. |
Tuesday
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Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. |
Tuesday Night
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A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. |
Wednesday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for 5 Miles NNW Helena MT.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
763
FXUS65 KTFX 261725
AFDTFX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1125 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025
Aviation Section Updated.
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
each afternoon and evening through Saturday.
- Some thunderstorms will produce strong wind gusts today.
- Temperatures trend above seasonal averages early next week
with a return to to daily thunderstorm chances by the middle of
next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
/Issued 1030 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025/
An area of clouds and light rain showers continues to push through
the area this morning, mostly in line with the forecast if not
slightly more widespread and longer lasting than forecast. The
impact of these lingering clouds on this afternoon`s clouds is a
bit uncertain, so we will see how things develop this afternoon.
Ludwig
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 1030 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025/
- Meteorological Overview:
The Northern Rockies and MT remain under an overall
zonal/westerly flow aloft into the upcoming weekend with
persistent upper troughing centered in the Gulf of AK sending a
series mainly weak shortwave and upper level jet impulses from
the Pacific eastward along the US/Canadian border. A weak frontal
boundary aloft pushing east across the Rockies early this morning
will spread clouds and a few light showers across central and
north-central MT this morning with thunderstorm development across
central ID and west-central MT developing early this afternoon
and tracking east across north-central and southwest MT later
this afternoon through early this evening. There is a marginal
(5-10%) risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon across
central/north-central MT, mainly due to strong wind gust
potential. Weaker disturbances moving through the westerly flow
will bring additional chances for widely scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms again Friday with more isolated coverage
of any showers/storms on Saturday. In the wake of this series of
disturbances upper level ridging will build across the interior
western US later this weekend into early next week, sending
temperatures above seasonal averages with afternoon maximums
reaching the upper 80s to around 90s across lower elevation
locations by Monday and Tuesday. Mainly dry conditions are also
expected through at least Monday with some moisture return
bringing an increase in daily shower/thunderstorm chances again by
the middle of next week.
- Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:
Primary concern with thunderstorm activity this afternoon will be
strong winds, noting a relatively deep/elevated mix layer still
in place per the 06z KTFX upper air sounding and mid-level flow
increasing today, supporting the idea of convection with enhanced
outflow or a more organized cold pool despite only modest
instability. Some uncertainty exists related to how much of this
deeply mixed boundary layer will remain going into this afternoon
following mid-level moisture increases and even some light showers
moving across the area this morning. Hi-resolution/convection
allowing model guidance continues to key on stronger storms within
a corridor of CAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range from roughly
southern Lewis and Clark county east through Fergus county this
afternoon with some higher CAPE potentially pooling east of the
Little Belts, giving the greatest risk for stronger thunderstorms
across Judith Basin and Fergus counties. Hoenisch
&&
.AVIATION...
26/18Z TAF Period
VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals during this TAF
period. The primary concern during this TAF period is isolated
strong to severe thunderstorms between 16/20Z and 17/03Z. All
thunderstorms will produce small hail, frequent lightning, and
gusty, erratic winds. The strongest thunderstorms have the potential
to produce wind gusts in excess of 48 kts. At the end of this TAF
period at the KGTF, KHLN, and KBZN terminals there is a 20 - 40%
chance for showers and thunderstorms. During any thunderstorm there
will be a brief period of mountain obscuration. -IG
Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 81 55 80 52 / 40 30 30 0
CTB 76 55 74 50 / 20 10 10 0
HLN 80 54 80 52 / 70 30 40 10
BZN 85 50 85 50 / 30 20 30 10
WYS 74 39 75 39 / 10 10 20 10
DLN 79 48 80 47 / 30 10 10 0
HVR 84 55 83 53 / 20 30 10 0
LWT 79 52 75 51 / 40 40 50 20
&&
.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls
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